Friday, 29 May 2009

Election is Over: Where is the Opposition?

Election is Over: Where is the Opposition?

One month long election is over and results are declared. The ruling coalition retrieved the mandate to continue its performance for another term. In India, election is like a festival and everyone in the country are keenly interested in the electoral process and watch it from the beginning. Between the declaration for the election and the declaration of results, lot of things happens. This time also the same thing happened. The United Progressive Alliance lead by Indian National Congress got the mandate to form the government and the Bharatiya Janata Party lead National Democratic Alliance was placed in the opposition. The opposition portion of the Lok Sabha will include the remaining political parties who fought against the ruling Congress lead government.

Main question emerges after the election is about the opposition. Who will be the real opposition in the house? Who will speak for the common man rather than for the business, regional and religious lobbies? How many parties have a national vision? In the present composition of the ruling coalition, these things are very important. One party which has national presence is Indian National Congress and other one is the largest opposition party the Bharatiya Janata Party. Though, the communists don’t have a national presence, they generally show a national perspective in legislative activities. The rest, not as blame, had better affiliation towards the interests of their region or the section, religion, community they belongs to.

It is difficult to find any difference between the ruling coalition and the major opposition coalition. Only visible difference between the major parties INC and BJP are one doesn’t belongs to any religious section and other always tries to propagate the secularism of ‘Hindutwa’. But they don’t have any difference of opinion on issues regarding economic liberalisation, privatisation, foreign policy, and policy towards labour, banking, agriculture, pension fund etc. It was evident that the both governments led by former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Dr. Manmohan Singh followed almost similar approach towards above mentioned segments. There is a very powerful corporate lobby that controls or tries to control the public opinion through their various channels provides unlimited support to both coalitions.

In fact, during the one month long election duration, Indian corporate, especially who runs the media houses were busy to push their agenda. Their target was the urban and semi urban educated class who gained exposure through the call centre and back office jobs. The support of this newly emerged ‘apolitical’ group never looked beyond the corporate agenda and the corporate slowly started gaining upper hand in interest articulation and opinion creation processes. Remember, there was a campaign from the media to use the constitutional option of ‘freeze vote’ in the election and the same idea was circulated for more than an year through the e-mails. Interestingly, all these e-mail were started from one or another back office of multinational companies. This shows the negative attitude of some section of our society towards electoral processes.

The corporate can easily gather the support of the expanded middleclass but it is not that easy to change the mind and consciousness of the majority Indians. They might be uneducated or illiterate but they have their own views and opinions and they have the will to show it during the election time. This is the beauty of Indian democracy. For corporate, it is not big issue to reach them but a political parties who have good roots in rural poor should use them properly. Here, the left made a massive mistake and they paid for it.

Here comes the relevance of the left parties and the biggest crime they did to the people this time. Losing election is a normal thing in politics but forgetting their responsibilities towards the people is much more than betrayal. This main opposition of Nehru’s time is cornered in two or three small pockets of the country and in the verge of losing their national party status. They lost in their strong holds and also lost in the places where their coalition partners had a better run. Through the lose they provided a huge vacant space in the parliament to the regional parties and the special interest parties. Though the left parties don’t have any kind of majority in the parliament to make changes in the government policies, their political positions were always counted in a positive way by common people.

In the capital city, the general opinion after the election and counting was a kind of big relief. Many people expressed that this time Congress will do better, just because they don’t have to depend on the support of the left parties. This time, there won’t be much trouble makers like communist party did last time and the government will be able to function in a better way. After election, everything is about the formation of government and allocation of portfolios to ministers. The mass media started their speculation works by picking up their favourite candidates in key positions in the cabinet. Why there is such resentment against the left parties who had a major role in the formation of this UPA coalition and supporting a good number of initiatives of the last government? Why people were happy to see the support of Samajwadi Party, which belongs to a particular section in the most populated state of India, rather than a creative support with criticism from the left?

The answer is with the communist parties only. It was their failure to convince the majority about their position on each and every issue. Their premature leadership had more interested in creating a government with the best opportunists in the country. The miserably failed to read the mind of the common people and also failed to communicate with them in their language about their efforts and success. They forget the role did by their former leader Harkishan Singh Surjeet in the formation of the UPA and his endless effort to form such coalition against the BJP. They failed to read the pulses of their own workers in their mass base places like Bengal and Kerala and turned against the feeling of people in those places.

They should realise their mistakes first but also should realise there is no way for a comeback. For the last 60 years, they failed to expand their mass base and comfortably sat on those few pockets and satisfied with small returns. In the past, the common people supported them because they felt the communist parties’ supports the peasants and labourers and stand with them. After 60 years, they realised that the party is not standing for the cause of the common people but they are for gaining power and gearing for the role of king maker. Yes, it was the role they were expecting through the formation of the third front with ABCD parties.

As per their political position, it was defined as their role to challenge the Congress led political coalition in issues regarding liberalisation and privatisation. The main opposition party BJP won’t do it in full heart because the Congress led UPA minus left is following the same policies which they continued during 1999-2004. The blatant privatisation programmes promoted by the famous trio –the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, former finance minister Chidambaram and the deputy chairman of the e planning commission Dr. Montek Singh Ahaluwalia –was curtailed to a certain level by the interference of the left parties in the last government and it won’t repeat this time. In fact, the present government can gear up its programmes without any obstruction just because of the political blunder of the left. Numerically they melted down from 60 to less than 25 and the parliamentary experience also matters this time. For instance, in Kerala CPM got four seats and two of them are new faces and other one had a single term experience in the parliament.

Parliamentary democracy is based on debates and discussions. So, critical approach during the discussion on policy matters is part of its correction mechanism. The left parties will be the usual frontrunner in criticising the government on ideological and other matters. With this least numerical presence, how they will attract the attention of the parliament this time? Whenever a bill or a submission appears on the matters such as agriculture, education, industrialisation, labour laws, public distribution system, privatisation, public health etc., it is the responsibility of the left to look into it critically with people’s perspective. How many are there this time to do such approach? If we look into the parliamentary debates, the left had made a great contribution in the floor on various subjects. The national leaders like Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Rajeev Gandhi to certain extend listened to the views and criticisms of left in the parliament floor before they make the final decision. In the current situation, who will correct the policies of the government? We can’t expect it from the BJP and its allies or from the regional parties like ABCDs.

Now, the poor people can’t expect that their voice and concerns will be reflected in the policy matters and it is the failure of the communists rather than the victory of Congress or BJP. They miserably failed to listen the problems and miseries of rural poor who lives in the backwardness of the Shining India. When the corporate supported political parties think and formulate the government policies, it is difficult to accept that they will fulfil the concerns of the poor in it. If we go through the recent one and a half decade history of Indian political system, we can understand why people opted for a left supported Congress led government than providing another chance to the ‘Shining India’ campaign of BJP.

During the Narasimha Rao government, Congress had a run with its liberalisation policies and forced the people to think twice to support them in the next election. So, the opted for a third front and once it failed they decided to give a chance to BJP. In 2004, the people realised that none of them are good enough to support and decided to give a chance to BJP led government. After the dissolution over the NDA government, the people looked for a change when the UPA alliance was organised by CPM general secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet. The left supported the government form outside till the last year when their alliance broke on the issue regarding Indo-US Nuclear deal.

While breaking an alliance on a single issue like Nuclear deal, actually communist lost their chance or channel to bring their achievements they made during the 4 years with UPA. Post election indicators are showing the resurgence of the corporate India with a 1300 points increase in the stock market on 18th May. The foreign media projected it as the mandate for further economic liberalisation. BBC says that the communist parties, who had blocked reforms in insurance, pension funds and the selling off of state-owned companies, lost more than half their parliamentary seats. The communist parties should sit and look into it in detail. They should do a post-mortem on election results and also on their approach towards the election and find out why they failed or lost more than half of their seats. Is it because of blocking the reforms in insurance, pension funds and selling off the state owned companies or their failure of communicating the fact that it was they who stopped such reforms and helped the economy to stand in this present situation rather than facing economic meltdown.

The left has to look into every matter which led them to this big failure. They should realise, it is their problem that they moved away from the common people. When they started dancing with the tunes of corporate like Tata, Salim Group and SNC Lavlin, they forgot the fact that their root is still with the rural poor and not with the urban elites. Industrialisation is not a negative thing but it should come in any place with keeping the conscience of the people who lives there. Instead of this, the party moved against the will of people and got into trouble. The inexperienced leadership has to learn from the people, they should go to the people and find out what they expect from them rather than asking them to follow what the party leadership directs. They should train their young parliamentarians in proper way to engage in democratic debates and approach policies with people perspective.

The loss of communist parties in the parliament election is a big crime they did to the people of this country. They moved away from their real agenda and left the common people into the hands of corporate, religious, and regional elements. Before people punish them further, they should take corrective measures and gather the popular support back. They have the responsibility to prove that the India belongs not only to the corporate world, international investors and traders but to the common people and they will protect their interests. We hope, with the remaining seats, the left will try their best to perform as a constructive opposition and bring their critical observations on to control the neoliberal reform programmes which the government promotes.

Wednesday, 27 May 2009

All the Roads Lead to Rome




All the Roads Lead to Rome



Tonight, all the roads will definitely leads to Rome. This historic city of Italy is waiting for the Champion of the Champions. Stadio Olimpico, the home ground of AS Roma and SS Lazio, is hosting the Champions League final for second time. In 1996, the little boys of Ajax Amsterdam defeated the Italian powerhouse AC Milan in the Champions League final. Though AC Milan, Inter-Milan and Juventus have better popularity in world football, the clubs of Rome maintained its own tradition in football. It was Fransisco Totti, the captain of the AS Roma team led the Italians to the winner of world cup few years ago. Though their home team were knocked out in the pre-quarter level, the football lovers in the city will extend their full hearted support to the final between Manchester United and Barcelona.


The incumbent champion, Manchester United is trying to write their name in Champions league history by winning the cup in successive terms. The manager of United, Sir Alex Ferguson, is eyeing a glory of his third champions’ league title with united. On the other hand, Barcelona’s youngest manager, Pep Guardiola, it trying to mark his name as the first Barca manager to lift the cup in the position of captain as well as manager. The football world expects a wonderful final from them. In Moscow last year, both Manchester United and Chelsea ended their usual time in 1-1 draw and completed the extra time without a proper result, the game moved towards tie-breakers. United clinched the trophy for the second time in its history by defeating Chelsea 6-5 on penalty shootout.


This time, United reached in the final by toppling their league rival Arsenal in both legs. While, Barcelona failed to defeat Chelsea at Nou Camp, which ended up in 0-0 draw and scrape through with 1-1 away draw in Stamford Bridge. This is first time Barcelona is meeting United in the finals. Last time they were kicked out by United in the semi final.


One thing is sure; it won’t be a dragging match like last final. Manchester United plays football with attacking flair along with their strong defence. On the other hand, Barcelona is known for their attacking abilities rather than defence. So, the lovers of football can expect a free flowing football final this time.


As per track record in the previous champions league matches, United has some edge over Barca. They have a well maintained defence unit and have more options than Barca in attack. Because of the red card, they lost Darren Fletcher in the final and others are in good condition to face Barcelona. Their formidable attacking line up includes Carlos Tavez, Wayne Rooney, Berbatov and Christiano Ronaldo. The football world considers that this will be the best occasion to see the abilities of Ronaldo and Lional Messi of Barcelona.


Barcelona too, won their championship and Kings cup and nearing for their third trophy in same season. After making serious changes in the team composition in the beginning of the season, Barca took some time to settle down as a team. Once they found the rhythm under their new manager and former Barca captain Pep Gaurdiola, they thrashed every team in the league to reach in the top. Barcelona is known for their free flowing attacking football. They believe in quick passing of the ball and also consider that the best way to defend the opponent is to attack them in waves. Their forward line up includes Samuel Eto’o, Thierry Henry and Lionel Messi and they get strong support from Andres Iniesta and Hernandez Xavi in the midfield.


But, Barca is struggling at present. The lost their two league matches and lost a few important players due to suspension and injury. Their key defenders Eric Abidal and Dani Alves were on suspension and Rafael Marquez is out with injury. So, they are completely depending on the experience of the captain Carlos Puyol, who is playing out of his position in right back, and highly experienced but aged defender Silvinho on the left back. In the centre, they have Gerard Pique, the young defender who played for Manchester United last year and inexperienced Martin Caceres. This is the vulnerable position of Barca and the attacking flair of Rooney, Ronaldo, Tavez partnership can easily exploit it. This make shift defend is more depending on the contribution of their holding midfielders Yaya Toure and Saydou Keita. So, the strength of Barca defence matters a lot in the final day.


On the other hand, Manchester United has more options in all areas of the pitch. They have one of the most experienced goal keepers in Van der Sar and a well equipped defence unit consists Evra, Vidic, Ferdinand and Garry Neville or John O’Shea or Rafael. If the defence is the most reliable position of the United, their most enterprising segment is their midfield where they have much more options than any other team in the Champions league. In Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes they have most trusted and experienced war horses and have Michel Carrick in the holding midfield role. They maintain a midfield powerhouse in Anderson and Park Ji-Sung who are capable to break up the attack of the opposition and open up the defence for their strikers. Sir Alex successfully used the service of Park Ji-Sung and Anderson against Arsenal in the semi-final to break up the passing and attacking verve of Gunners. Nothing much to mention about the striking power of United forward line. They have four trusted and proved strikers in Rooney, Tavez, Berbatov and Ronaldo. If the team gel well and they play according to the game plan of Alex Ferguson, Barcelona will struggle to get a favourable result.


In one position, there is no comparison between Manchester United and Barcelona. It is the experience of team manager. Without any doubt, Sir Alex Ferguson holds the most successful manager’s position in the English football. He has two Champions League trophies in his credit and aiming to retain the cup for first time in its history. On the other hand, Pep Guardiola started his managerial career this year. When Alex Ferguson started his managerial career, Guardiola might be enjoying his playschool days. But, he brought out a successful team in his first year at Barca and already pocketed two trophies and gunning for the treble.


I would like to watch this beautiful final rather than talking much about it. I can’t make any choice for the winners place this time. In realistic terms, my head says, Manchester United will do it again but my mind, which always prefers the beautiful football with passing and attacking flair, says, it should be Barcelona. Whatever happens, one thing I am sure, in the final match in Rome tonight, the most beautiful game in the world –Football will win.

Tuesday, 19 May 2009

OIL Diplomacy: The Question of Cuba-U.S. Relations in 21st Century

OIL Diplomacy


Introduction

Nobody knows how much Oil Cuba has but everyone knows that oil is really very precious. It is like an enigma. Estimates are varied from each other. In the latest report in a Latin American Business daily, by Jorge Piñón, a former vice president of Amoco’s Latin American operations quoting United States Geological Survey, Cuba has 5.5 billion barrels of oil and 9.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. In November 2008, Rafael Tenreyo, the exploration director of Cuban state oil corporation, Cupet, estimated it as a modest reserve of 20 billion barrels. Nearly a year back, in the statistics of Energy Information Administration, posted in January 2007 on world oil reserves, IEA is quoting World Oil and Oil and Gas Journal, that Cuba has 0.558 billion barrels and 0.124 billion barrels respectively. Both statistics were not crossing even 1 billion barrels. It is difficult to say which one is correct or near to the correct figure. In a news article appeared in MSNBC.com says that it was the Spanish oil company Repsol-YPF, in partnership with Cuba’s state oil company Cupet identified five fields and classified it as “high-quality” in the deep water of the Florida Straits, 20 miles northeast of Havana. Seven months later, a report by the U.S. Geological survey confirmed it: The North Cuba Basin held a substantial quantity of oil - 4.6 billion to 9.3 billion barrels of crude and 9.8 trillion to 21.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas[i].


Question of Cuba’s oil reserve comes under a different category. Many Latin American countries and Caribbean countries have substantial oil and natural gas reserves. Then what makes Cuba different from others? It is their special relation with United States for nearly 50 years. They are facing economic embargo from U.S. for several decades. In fact, U.S. is still pushing for a ‘regime change’ in Cuba. So far it didn’t happened and Cuba’s leadership is still remaining with Castro brothers. Why it didn’t happen in Cuba and is there a chance to do so? In Iraq, U.S. successfully introduced the regime change within a short span of time and Iraq is far and quiet bigger than Cuba but they had an authoritarian government lead by Saddam Hussein. Cuba is very close to U.S. and they also have an authoritarian government for last 50 years lead by Fidel Castro and it is very small in size. Why the regime change didn’t happen so far and at present there is a possibility to do so? In Cuba, they didn’t find anything special than the revolution of Fidel and Iraq, then it is true, they fought for the control of oil rather than capturing Saddam. Recent finding of oil reserve in the Gulf of Mexico which comes under the sovereign limits of Cuba provides different perspectives to U.S. Cuban relations/hostility.



Summit of the Americas, 2009: The wind of change

In the recent Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago (17-19 April 2009), U.S. President Barack Obama took effort to change the course of the relationship between United States and other countries in the hemisphere. In fact, he began his speech by recognizing the hurdles of mistrust to be overcome. “I know that promises of partnership have gone unfulfilled in the past, and that trust has to be earned over time,” he said. “While the United States has done much to promote peace and prosperity in the hemisphere, we have times been disengaged, and at times we sought to dictate our terms. But I pledge to you that we seek an equal partnership. There is no senior partner and junior partner in our relations; there is simply engaged based on mutual respect and common interests and shared values.[ii]” In fact, the Trinidad and Tobago Summit ended with more smiles and backslapping. Before the summit, the Obama administration played its Cuba card by announcing the lifting of Bush restrictions on family travel and sending remittances to the island. In return, at the ALBA[1] conference before the summit, Cuban President Raul Castro said, “we have told the North American Government, in private and public, that we are prepared, whatever they want, to discuss everything – human rights, freedom of the press, political prisoners – everything, everything, everything that they want to discuss.[iii]


The political environment is changed, political actors are also changed, and still the U.S. policy towards Cuba is not changing. During the last 50 years, more than one generation has changed in both Cuba and U.S. The original justification for the embargo was Cuba’s expropriation of “some $1.8 billion worth of U.S.-owned property,” according to the U.S. Foreign Claims Settlement Commission. In turn, Cubans argue that early in the century, the United States had seized control of 70% of Cuban land and three-quarters of Cuba’s primary industry[iv]. Both countries moved forward with different perspectives on economic and political development and reached in different positions in the present world. The original issues of the embargo are now a distant memory of the old people in both countries and the young generation will look into it through different perspectives.


According to the Cuba Policy Foundation (CPF), a nonprofit organization run by a former U.S. ambassador, a majority—52%—wants the embargo to be lifted, with 67% favoring an immediate end to the travel restrictions[v]. The website of World Public Opinion says that majority of US citizens are in favour of changes in the policy towards Cuba. More specifically, the public favours lifting the ban on travel to Cuba for Americans and re-establishing diplomatic relations as well as other changes[vi]. Among the changes, the lifting of trade embargo is the least appreciated in the survey. It says, in 2007, nearly 40 percent of the U.S. people were favour of lifting the embargo and it has moved up to 49 percent in 2009, still it is short of majority. But CPF is more takes it in different way and suggest that tthose percentages might be even higher if the U.S. public were aware that the blockade is actually costing them more than the Cubans, something that is finally beginning to dawn on the U.S. business community.


Throughout the Summit, the focus was on the approach of Obama towards Latin America and also to Cuba. He offered some positive response to the demands of the leaders of Latin American countries. In fact, one month before the Summit, President Obama signed the U.S. Budget and in it, he accepted the some changes in the Cuban policy. In the budget, he made provisions for U.S. residents to travel to Cuba, send money to the family members in the island, and included provision for the sale of agricultural and pharmaceutical products to Cuba. By doing this, he was trying to loosen the restrictions imposed by former President George W. Bush from 2001. Bush tightened some of those restrictions in recent years, most notably limiting travel to the island to once every three years for a limit of 14 days. Under the new provisions, relatives will be able to go once a year and stay for an unlimited time. In addition, the definition of relatives has been broadened to include uncles, aunts, nephews and nieces. The new measures also increase the amount of money visitors can spend. But the U.S. President never touched the key elements in the half a century old embargo. The embargo, which remains firmly in place through the 1992 Cuban Democracy Act and the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, will still block things like the importation of badly needed modern farming equipment and key infrastructural improvements[vii]. President’s offer never touches such matters and only talking about the lifting of travel ban and allowing remittance.

Analysts see the move as a way for the new Obama administration to start thawing relations with Cuba one month before the Fifth Summit of the Americas brings together the U.S. president and 33 other leaders from the Western Hemisphere in Trinidad and Tobago. According to Peter Hakim, president of the Washington based Inter-American Dialogue Policy Institute, “Cuba is the issue of greatest symbolic importance and it will be seen as a test of real U.S. readiness to change in the hemisphere.[viii]” Meanwhile, Otto Reich, who served presidents Reagan and both Bushes in a number of high-level Latin American posts, said he did not like the Cuba provisions in the budget because the United States gets nothing in return. “I’m opposed to it because of the way it was done,” he said. “There’s a way it can be done to advance the conditions of the people in Cuba. I don’t approve of the unilateral way it’s being done. The embargo is a negotiating tool. We should not negotiate with ourselves, and that’s what we’re doing.[ix]” The political influence of personality like Otto Reich matters a lot in U.S. Cuban and U.S. Latin American relations.

Whether the change will take place?

Who will make the changes in U.S. - Cuban relations? The whole Latin America is demanding a much positive approach towards Cuba and in words; we can see Obama is accepting it. Still one can see lot of obstructions in such moves in United States. Mark Weisbrot, the reporter of Guardian observes that the U.S. administration itself will throw the spanner in those damage control processes. In his article, he finds that the bureaucrats in the U.S. administration are not ready to accept the changing environment in U.S.- Latin American relations as well as Cuban relations. While President Obama is making an offensive approach towards the Latin American and Caribbean leaders in the summit to naturalise the relationship, Obama’s Latin American advisor and the director for the Summit of the Americas, Jeffrey Davidow made an adversary comment on one significant Latin American leader. Davidow told reporters: “There is a sizeable population in Venezuela, probably the very, very vast majority of the Venezuelans who have a more favourable attitude to President Obama than they have to Hugo Chavez.[x]” This is the best example to show how the bureaucrats in the U.S. administration can pull back the advancement of its political leaders in certain matters.

So, two things were clear. The public opinion is not good enough to make changes in the relation between two countries. And the approach of political leadership is also not effective to get the things into action. Then, who can make the changes in such situation? In his article, Mr. Jorge Piñón is trying to find the correct answer –the business community. For nearly 50 years, the business community in U.S. is losing its advantage in engaging with Cuban counterparts, just because of the embargo. In fact, the representatives of a dozen leading U.S. business organizations, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, signed a letter in December urging Barack Obama to scrap the embargo. The letter pegs the cost to the U.S. economy at $1.2 billion per year. The CPF’s estimates are much higher: up to $4.84 billion annually in lost sales and exports. The Cuban government estimates the loss to Cuba at about $685 million annually. Thus the blockade costs the United States up to $4.155 billion more a year than it costs Cuba[xi]. Along with this lose; the U.S. government also spends US$ 27 million each year to broadcast Radio and TV Marti, even though the television signal is effectively blocked by the Cuban government. According to the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, this largely futile propaganda effort has cost U.S. taxpayers half a billion dollars over the last 20 years.

For U.S. business community, lose of 5 billion annually is not a big issue when they compare it with their investments and returns in other places. But, the moment they realise the gap of lose is going to widen drastically, especially in the light of the recent findings of oil reserves in Cuban offshore, they will start thinking in a different way. Petroleum is one of the key elements which determine the business diplomacy between countries and American oil companies are very powerful in lobbying and opinion creation. Till a couple of years back, they were not bothered about the economy and investment possibility of Cuba. So, finding of oil in Cuba is powerful enough to change the attitude of American companies and will try their best to get maximum stake in the oil reserves in their neighbourhood. The debate is already started in U.S. and the article of Piñón is also part of it.

Presence of Petroleum – Debate of loses and gains

According to Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, an expert on Cuban energy matters and a political science professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, says America’s thirst for oil will soon force a fundamental change in Washington’s relations with Havana. He always argued that the U.S. should keep the Cuban embargo in place until they got to the point where it started to cost the country something. Today, he adds, “we are almost there”. According to Mr. Phil Peters, vice president of the Lexington Institute, a think tank in Arlington, Va, “if Cuba discovers a lot of oil and becomes an exporter, the embargo almost becomes an absurdity.” Kirby Jones, the founder and president of the U.S. - Cuba Trade Association in Washington, D.C. says that the reality of Cuba as an oil producer makes the embargo to costly a policy to keep. He added, “our choice is: Are we going to let those countries take that oil? Or are we going to look at our strategic interests and recognize that very close to our shores is a substantial quantity of oil that is going to be exploited?[xii]

These are three opinions of people who carry substantial weight in their areas and all opinions have a common factor that the finding of oil reserve will leads the U.S. to end the embargo. This is the first time the business community in the United States are having a sore taste of embargo and it is difficult for them to leave it away in Cuba’s way. In fact, Cuba did not waste any time and divided the 74,000 square miles area into 59 exploration blocks and welcomed the foreign oil conglomerates with offers of production-sharing agreements. This was the turning point in the enduring economic and trade embargo by U.S. over Cuba for last 47 years. For the first time, the US oil conglomerates felt the heat of the embargo and realised it is very difficult to engage in the exploration activities in Cuba without amending the embargo and Helms-Burton act of 1996. The U.S. oil companies were sure that the Cuba won’t wait for the amendment of U.S. trade and other laws against their country and will precede the operations with the companies from other countries. The U.S. oil companies expected that without their expertise in offshore drilling and technological know-how in exploration, the Cuba will struggle to continue its offshore oil exploration. Within short time, they realised that it was just their illusion and found that the companies from Europe, China, Brazil, India and Canada has started talks with Cuban officials about investments in deep water operations.


This was a huge blow to the U.S. oil companies who strongly believed in the supremacy of their technological advantages, investment competitiveness and diplomatic capabilities in trade and economic dealings. In the case of Cuba, the U.S. oil conglomerates were not in a position to approach the state to intervene and the state was also not in a position to do such intervention in a short time because the laws and policies are against the participation of U.S. companies in Cuban investment was imposed by the state itself. From this time onwards, the oil business lobby of U.S. is trying their best to make amendments in the trade embargo against Cuba. In his article Mr. Piñón accepts that the Cuban authorities have invited United States oil companies to participate in developing their offshore oil and natural gas resources U.S. law does not allow it[xiii]. Then they thoroughly questioned the competitive ability of Cuba’s state owned petroleum companies in offshore deep-water drilling and challenged the economic capability of Cuba to push through the exploration activities without support of American companies.


In the report of Brookings Institution, ‘Cuba: A New Policy of Critical and Constructive Engagement’ Jorge Piñón argues that “our position on Cuba vis-à-vis oil, and that's why you will notice that I'm usually in this panel, again not from the oil point of view, not from the point of view that Cuba has a lot of oil, therefore we the United States needs it, therefore let's go ahead and grab it, let's go ahead and take it, we need the Exxons and the Conocos and the Marathons and the Chevrons to go after it, that is not our position. Our position is very clear, and that is that that future Cuban government in transition or that future Cuban government or people have to be independent of any outside political influence.[xiv]” Why it is just about the future Cuban government? By saying so, it is clearly negating the people who are living in Cuba and their interests and aspirations. In all writings, they projected the expenditure of this offshore exploration and the state of present Cuban economy and purposefully linked it with the problem of existing Cuban communist government and silently demanded the regime change.


Economic superiority, technological advantage, political upper hand, business aggressiveness and diplomatic abilities of the nation as well as the oil companies put U.S. in a blind position in which they cannot see or accept a challenge from any one in any areas mentioned above especially related to the petroleum industry. U.S. severely underestimated the abilities of the state owned petroleum companies in the countries like Brazil, China, and India and companies from the countries like Spain, Canada, and Norway. In May 2005, Spain’s Repsol –YPF announced it was partnering with India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation and Norsk Hydro ASA –now a state owned Oil Company of Noway – explore for oil and gas in six of the 59 deep water blocks along Cuba’s maritime border with the United States. Mean while, the Sherritt International Corp., the Canadian oil company has acquired exploration rights of four of the deep sea blocks. These initiatives raised the eyebrows of oil executives like Jorge Piñón and others and started demanding an intervention from the side of the state to provide access for US oil companies to Cuba. Among these companies, the Norsk and ONGC belong to the select companies who have the deep-water know how and technology and when they joined with the Spanish Repsol, the demand raised from American business community saying ‘maybe we better took a look at Cuba again.[xv]


The American oil executives and the petroleum companies realized that if they fail to remove the embargo and continue to fight against the communist government in Cuba in the name of Human Rights and Democracy, the probability of their participation in Cuba remains nil. Terry Maris, executive director of the Centre for Cuban Business Studies at Ohio Northern University expects that the Cuba will require at least 20 billion US dollar to develop its oil reserve into its commercial potential. He observes that the ‘experience of Sudan and other non-democratic countries shows that foreign companies will invest in Cuba to develop its crude reserves despite human right abuses and a lack of free and fair elections.[xvi]’ Archibald Ritter, professor emeritus of economics and international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada, agreed that Cuba’s oil sector will take off in the next few years and believes that it will entail political consequences. He envisages that ‘if the regime lasts until 2015, it will receive a lot of funds from oil. That will strengthen it.[xvii]

Changing Views US Officials

It is unfair to say that the U.S. political leadership was unaware about these developments and they didn’t do anything regarding this. The lobbying of oil executives and business communities worked very well and in May 2005, the Representative Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., and Senator Larry Craig, R-Idaho, introduced twin bills to the House and the Senate that would exempt Big Oil from the embargo. Before introducing his legislation, Craig told a reporter that “prohibition on trade with Cuba has accomplished just about Zero.[xviii]” These efforts were played down by the highly influential Cuban American voting lobby of Florida. In fact, the moves of Flake and Craig were challenged by people like Alfredo Mesa, executive director of the Cuban American National Foundation in Miami: ‘Those who would advocate for ... allowing U.S. companies to drill off Cuba lose sight of how that would damage our ability to press the Cuban government on other issues, such as human rights.” Thought there is a large demand for change in the U.S. policy towards Cuba, certain powerful lobbies are good enough to turn it around.


The active participation of state owned oil companies from Vietnam and Malaysia along with China, Norway and India in Cuba send worrying messages in United States. It was not because of missing their opportunity in the exploration processes in Cuba, but it was their inability to do in the same in their own fields inside U.S. border, nearby Cuba. During his presidential campaign, Senator McCain tried his level best to lift the federal moratorium on oil exploration in American coastal waters. He realized the missing opportunity in Latin America as well as in domestic field just because of embargo or moratorium will end up in a heavy loss to U.S. economy as well as their huge oil industry. Active participation of companies from China, Norway and Cuba were looked up with high amount of concerns by U.S. think tanks. Mr. Gal Luft, the director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security observes that “with more and more countries vying for Western Hemisphere oil, our dependence on Middle East oil is going to grow substantially.[xix]” Here, the inability of U.S. companies is not because of their technological disadvantage or lack of capital investment, it was the legal hurdles made by the U.S. government itself. The eastern portion of America’s section of the Gulf –the part that is closest to Cuba also possesses the same riches as Cuba has. But, any kind of exploration activities were curtailed by the moratorium on drilling, which was imposed by Congress in 1982 and has been extended annually since then President George H.W. Bush issued his own executive order to the same effect in 1990. This moratorium has strong support from state like Florida, whose politicians have expressed concern about what offshore exploration and drilling might mean for its beaches. State’s boundaries generally extended three to nine miles offshore, with the federal government’s jurisdiction extending to 200 miles.

In this juncture, the American oil executives and business community should look into their internal matters first rather than looking at their neighbour Cuba and saying they are exploiting the oil wealth nearby. In June 2008, the issues of oil drilling in Cuban waters become an issue in U.S. when Vice President Dick Cheney felt it is illegal. But later the authorities were forced to accept the fact that the drilling was happening in Cuban offshore territory and China has leased exploration rights in the area[xx]. Another interesting fact is that the Senator McCain who has argued for the removal of moratorium on offshore drilling in U.S. territory has opposed drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska. All these facts show light on the double standard of U.S. authorities on issues regarding oil and Cuba.


Still, the oil lobby of United States cannot relax and forget about the lucrative oil reserve lying in nearby country. The political animosity is a different question when it comes to business and profit sharing. For any country in the world, petroleum industry is considered as the golden goose and U.S. oil industry is also not different from it. Problem here is the inaccessibility to the source. For Cuba, this is a chance to overturn its economic fortunes rather than using oil for fulfilling their political ambitions. For them, it is an issue of survival rather than competing with their big neighbour. Exploration and development of petroleum requires support of advanced scientific technology and huge capital investment and just because of the embargo, they can’t wait for U.S. oil companies to come and do it. In such situations, the political leadership will go for pragmatic solutions and Cuba also did so. They sought for alternative solutions and gathered it from different sources.


U.S. oil experts cannot blame Cuba in this regard. Inability to access in Cuba is not the fault of Cuba and it was a self imposed political decision on U.S. companies for the last 47 years. But in the writings of oil executives in United States are trying to project their technological supremacy and insist that Cuba cannot succeed in the exploration and development of their oil reserves without their participation. In fact, their world is too small and very much U.S. centric. In the time of globalisation, nobody can control the flow of information, knowledge and technology to a certain extend. In his article, Jorge Pinion argues that ‘if U.S. companies were allowed to contribute in developing Cuba’s hydrocarbon reserves, as well as renewable energy such as solar, wind and sugarcane ethanol, it would reduce the influence of autocratic and corrupt governments on the island’s road toward self determination.[xxi]’ If this is the contribution of U.S. companies in energy sector, then the political profile of countries in the Middle East might have changed long back. Saudi Arabia is still not a proper democratic country as well as Kuwait and UAE.



Conclusion

Cuba is a country which has membership in United Nations and has bilateral and multilateral relations with a good number of countries in the world. The eight years of relative U.S. engagement in Afghanistan and Iraq, saw the Latin American countries develop a range of autonomous ties and new habits as well as alliances and inter-American institutions, most of which lack U.S. membership. This is a huge development and could re-direct the entire nature of U.S.-Latin American relations. Consequently, Cuba now has alternative sources of finance and trade; it is no longer entirely reliant on the U.S. Indeed, Washington now stands all but alone in the western hemisphere in not maintaining full diplomatic ties with Havana[xxii]. In fact, they are isolated by one country, the United States of America. Cuba is a sovereign country to keep economic and political relationship with any country in the world and they have the right to engage in any business deals with any country, if it is beneficial to the national interest of the country. The concept of imposition of future government could be interpreted as the demand for the regime change and we all know what happened in the places the regime change occurred in near past. How long US can isolate Cuba from the Summits of the Americas? The recent Summit was focused on one point agenda from the Latin American countries and that was inclusion of Cuba in OAS. It was not the demand from Venezuela, the friendliest country of Cuba and it was a unanimous demand.


Latin America itself has changed a lot in the last two decades. Their political and economic dependency on United States has come down to a significant level. They also changed themselves from their revolutionary past to a pragmatic future. Maybe, the distraction of US from Latin America, because of their engagement in the Middle East, helped them to move in a different direction. In the present Latin America, one can see their thirst for togetherness in the areas of trade and development. In the domains of economic development, the present day Latin America is more keen in diversifying their sources rather than depending on United States and selected countries of Europe. The big countries like Brazil, Argentina, Mexico etc., are pushing themselves to keep better relations with countries like India, China, South Africa and Russia. This is very evident in the case of Petroleum industry. Countries like Brazil, China, India and Russia has developed their own technology in exploration and development of petroleum resources. Companies from China and India are very keen in investing in the oil reserves in Latin American countries and also to do joint ventures with their petroleum companies like Petrobras, PDVSA etc.

Recent exploration result from Tupi oil filed in Brazil has proved that the developing countries are capable to cope up with technological know-how in advanced areas in oil industry. India’s ONGC-Videsh also has its own expertise in deep water exploration and joint venture with companies from Spain or Norway will certainly enhance their abilities to compete with U.S. companies. For countries like China and India, the development of deep water oil fields in Cuba will be beneficial in both ways. Cuba needs technology to develop the reserves and keep their energy security and economic development process in right track and countries like China and India requires uninterrupted flow of petroleum for their industrial development. If Cuba is successful in attracting more companies in the development process of its offshore reserves, the competition will be healthy and will do better for the country.


[1] ALBA: Boliverian Alternatives for the Americas (Spanish - Alternativa Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra América) - which also means 'dawn' in Spanish) is an international cooperation organization based upon the idea of social, political, and economic integration between the countries of Latin America and Caribbean. Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Honduras etc., are members of this cooperation.

[i] MSNBC.com, Cuban Oil renews embargo debates, 29 July, 2006
[ii] Laura Carlsen, Words and Deeds in Trinidad, FPIF.
[iii] ibid
[iv] Margot Pepper, ‘The Cost of the Embargo’, 03 March 2009 - www.coha.org
[v] Ibid
[vi] http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/home_page/600.php?nid=&id=&pnt=600&lb=
[vii] Michale Chasse, The big picture of the Cuban embargo and travel ban, 28 April, https://nacla.org/node/5769
[viii] Arthur Brice, CNN, March 11, 2009
[ix] Ibid
[x] Mark Weisbrot, Guardian, 22 April 2009
[xi] Magot Pepper, ‘The Cost of the Embargo,’03 March 2009 –www.coha.org
[xii] MSNBC.com, Cuban Oil renews embargo debates, 29 July, 2006
[xiii] Jorge Piñón, ‘US Presence in Cuba Oil?’, Latin Business Chronicle, 04 May 2009.
[xiv] The Brookings Institution, ‘Cuba: A New Policy of Critical and Constructive Engagement’, 22 April 2009, Washington D.C.
[xv] MSNBC.com, Cuban Oil renews embargo debates, 29 July, 2006
[xvi] Latin Petroleum Magazine, ‘Experts Predict Jump in Cuba Oil Production, 02 December 2008
[xvii] Ibid
[xviii] MSNBC.com, Cuban Oil renews embargo debates, 29 July, 2006
[xix] Joseph Glodetein, New York Sun, 19 July, 2008
[xx] Ibid
[xxi] Jorge Piñón, ‘US Presence in Cuba Oil?’, Latin Business Chronicle, 04 May 2009.
[xxii] COHA, ‘Cuba and United States: Let’s Not Waste an Opportunity for Change’, 22 April 2009.

Tuesday, 12 May 2009

A Tribute to the Octogenarian Maestro



A Tribute to the Octogenarian Maestro
The Legend of Kalamandalam Ramankutty Nair



Time is running too fast. I was there in Karalmanna, where the lovers of Kathakali celebrated his 70th (Sapthati) birthday in a big way. It was one of the great moments in my Palakkadan life and still I can recollect the bright colours of that evening. After 14 years, the art lovers of Kerala are celebrating his 84th (Satabhishekam) birthday at the same venue. I have left Palakkad and Kerala in 1995, but the colourful memories of those days takes me back to that place.

I like Kathakali very much. May be, it is just because of my bringing up provided me to have a close look at this classical art form. Many of my relatives were keen followers of Kathakali and they closely follow the temple festival calendars to catch up with the best performances. I was not that keen or a devoted follower but was able to follow this great art form and understand some of the Mudras. The stories were by-heart from the childhood and it helped me to follow the performance in a better way.


While having a short stint in IRTC –Mundoor, we, my colleague Hari Kishore and I came to know about Karalmanna programme from my cousin brother Kuttan Chettan, who was running a studio in Olavakkode. He and his brother Jayan were devoted followers of Kathakali and had close friendship with many well known artists. We took bus to Cherpulasery and then to Karalmanna. Reached there at around 8-30pm and the organising committee has arranged dinner for everyone who comes there for the programme. We saw TV crews running around to get hold of the best artists in Kathakali who were present there. At that time, Malayalam had only three TV channels. I saw Shri Ramankutty Nair was having his dinner with few of his close friends and many big names in the field of Kathakali were present there to pay their tributes and best wishes to the great guru.


Before reaching there in Karalmanna, we got to know that there will be two Kathakali performances by the best artists of the time. We saw Kalamandalam Gopi is preparing in the green room, great singer Kalamandalam Haridas is talking to some other artist and the first performance was ‘Nalacharitam 4th day’. For me, it was my first time to see Kalamandalam Gopi as Nalan, which is considered as his best appearance. In the second story, Kalamandalam Ramankutty Nair will appear as Hanuman in ‘Toranayudham’, which is considered as one of his best appearance. Another great feeling of the day was the outstanding performance of one Kathakali singer –Kalamandalam Gangadharan, a master who followed the traditional way of kathakali sangeetam developed by Kalamandalam Unnikrishna Kurup. It was very much different from the sweetness of Kalamandalam Haridas and Kalamandalam Hyder Ali. His voice has everything, sweetness, strength to evoke the real expressions of the characters appearing in the stage, and strong and powerful voice. His performance was amazing. But the take of the day was the performance of Shri Ramankutty Nair. His appearance as Hanuman in Toranayudham with his famous ‘Ashtakalasam’ elevated the audience to a different world altogether.


Shri Kalamandalam Ramankutty Nair started his Kathakali life much before the formation of Kerala Kalamandalam, the institute started by Mahakavi Vallathol Narayana Menon and Mukunda Raja. Along with his guru shri Pattikamthodi Ravunni Menon, he moved in to Kalamandalam. Shri Ravunni Menon was the principal teacher for Kathakali in the institute and Ramankutty Nair joined as his student. Later he joined there as the faculty and retired as the principal of Kalamandalam. He enjoyed nearly 70 active years of professional life in the field of Kathakali and travelled across the country and abroad to popularise this art form. After retirement from Kalamandalam, he wrote his autobiography ‘Tiranottam’ which was serialised in Mathrubhumi weekly. He also participated in the programmes organised by Spic-Macy, an organisation working for popularising classical and traditional art forms of India. I remember his visit to Delhi in 1995 or 96. He did a demonstration performance for the student crowd gathered from IIT Delhi and JNU. I was fortunate to see his special performance he did in Delhi for the International Kathakali Centre in Delhi. There, he appeared as the Mahabharata character Duryodhana, in which he performed ‘Ekalochanam’, a special way expressing two opposite ‘rasas’ on his face simultaneously.


The scholarship and artistic contributions of Ramankutty Nair were well recognised by the concerned authorities. He was honoured with Padmabushan in 2007 and Kendra Sangeeta Nataka Academy Award in 1975 and Kendra Sangeeta Nataka Academy Ratna in 2004. Shri Ramankutty Nair was the first recipient of Emeritus Fellowship from HRD in 1999 and first Kathakali artist to receive Kathakali Puraskar from Government of Kerala in 2000. Kerala Sangeeta Nataka Academy honoured him in 1987 and he received Sri Guruvayoorappan Puraskar in 2004. He received Kalidasa Samman from the Madhya Pradesh government in 1994 and Kalaratnam from Bombay in 2003.


After fourteen years, today i saw the news about his Sathabhishekam –the 84th birthday celebration. A brochure ‘Tiranottam’ is already released in connection with the 84th birthday celebrations of Kalamandalam Ramankutty Nair. Tiranottam organising committee is planning to organise a grand programme in Cherpulasery on 15 and 16 May to celebrate his 84th birthday, which includes different art performances by the masters in their respective fields. Today, in TV news, Shri Ramankutty Nair declared that he would like to appear in the stage as Dharmaputhrar, the legendary character of Mahabharata.


Time is running too fast and it is difficult to cope up with its pace. After 14 years of his 70th birthday celebrations in Karalmanna, i realise, there are few valuable faces are missing out here. Major lose occurred in the field of Kathakali singers. The best prodigies produced by Kalamandalam, Sankaran Embranthiri, Haridas and Hyder Ali, are not in this world to pay tribute to one of their great guru. With all respect, we pay our tribute and best wishes for the Sathabhishekam of Kalamandalam Ramankutty Nair. Let the almighty provide better physique and more years to this octogenarian maestro.

Tuesday, 5 May 2009

Champions League Semifinal - Arsenal v/s Manchester United: My observations



Champions League Semifinal - Arsenal v/s Manchester United:
My Observations



I accept, the first leg of the semi final between Manchester United and Arsenal was a big disappointment. Today is the second leg. Both managers offer a good football feast. But, it is better to keep our expectation level in the minimum than earlier. Yes, chances are there to rise up the tempo of the game in Emirates Stadium of Arsenal. If the Arsenal team comes up with fighting spirit against the leading United, we can expect a good game.

In the other semi final, Chelsea managed to contain Barcelona in Nou Camp, the home ground of the Catalonians. But, Chelsea has seen the demolition of Real Madrid at Santiago Bernabeu on last Saturday and how their free flowing football worked against an experienced and well organized team. Chelsea’s goal less draw is creating enormous pressure on them now. If they had a goal advantage like Manchester United, they would have been in the pole position by now. Tomorrow, it is their duty to defend Barca better than last time and not allowing them to make a draw with a single goal. If they conceive a goal and ends up the match in draw means they will lose out to Barca on away goal advantage.

On the other hand, United is in pole position. It is Arsenal who is under tremendous pressure. They lost to United for 1-0 goal at Old Trafford, United home ground. It is better to say they meekly surrendered their position in the field in the last game. If they managed to score a goal in the last match and make it as a draw, the pressure will be on United. They miserably failed not only to get an away goal but to make a proper goal chance too. It was an utter disappointment of free flowing football. It was a sheer mismatch between a strong imposing team on one side and an inexperienced and completely exhausted team on other side. Except the goal keeper of Arsenal, the remaining 10 players were their shadows and they were chasing the shadows of the United team rather than man marking the Red Devils.

Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger says that the Manchester United will regret because of their failure to score more goals in the first leg, which was at their home ground. It is merely a joke than anything for a person who knows the firing power of Christiano Ronaldo, Carlos Tavez and Wayne Rooney. Manchester needs to score just one goal in Emirates stadium to move up to the finals in Rome. On the other hand, Arsenal needs to score minimum twice without conceding another goal. In other sense, they don’t have the option of a goal less draw, 1-1 draw and also 1-0 victory. With an injury laden defense line up, Arsenal will struggle with the first rated attacking strikers and wingers like Ronaldo, Rooney, Tavez, Berbatov, Giggs, and Scholes etc. In the last game, the star performer of Arsenal –Cesc Fabregas was not more than a fainted shadow of himself. He was completely controlled by United midfielders. The lone striker Adebayor was completely isolated in the upfront by Manchester United players and Arsenal midfield failed to give him a telling pass or cross to make a goal. On the other hand, apart from Song and Sagna, the entire back unit of Arsenal failed to keep the attacking verve of Manchester United away from their goal mouth. It was the goal keeper, Manuel Almunia, completely under graded player, who made the difference and gave a chance to Wenger to talk about the regret of Manchester United.

The return of Rio Ferdinand from injury provides a big boost for United. Sir Alex will be able to bring the same defense line up for this match too. For United, absence of any defender –Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra matters a lot. Though they have formidable attacking line up and strong midfield, the defense of Rio and Vidic provided them maximum number of clean sheets so far. On the other hand, Arsenal will struggle with their make shift defense against the powerful attack of United. Kolo Toure and Sagna are the only reliable and experienced defenders available to them. On left, they will depend on Gibbs, who is still a teenage player and in the centre they have to satisfy with Johan Djourou. In normal circumstances, this defense will struggle to cope up with the counter attack of United. Absence of Gael Clichy and Michel Sylvester and injury of their most experienced defender William Gallas will cost them a lot.

I think, United started thinking about their finals against either Barcelona or Chelsea in Rome. They are capable to do so. I hope, if they win, the final will be between United and Barcelona. It is very difficult to digest the repetition of last year’s final which ended in sudden death. Here I am thinking about some possible encounters in the final.

First: Barcelona against Manchester United. It will be an ideal final; both teams will try to play open game with flowing passes. Manchester won’t go to park their team bus in front of their goal post like Chelsea did in the first leg semifinal. I am sure, United will strengthen the defense line and try to make counter attacks instead of going for all round attack. Instead of going for quick attacks from flanks, United will try to utilize the power and speed of Rooney and Tavez and go for a direct attack. In such approach, Ronaldo will get more space and he can provide more support to the strikers. Sir Alex knew that the weakest link in Barcelona team is their defense and direct approach with support of roaming Ronaldo behind will provide enough width in attack. He will try to get maximum advantage from the absence of experienced Rafael Marquez in the centre defense. But the performance of Dani Alves and Eric Abidal is good enough to check the attack of Manchester United from wings. Meanwhile, Barca will have three superb attacking strikers in Lionel Messi, Therry Henry and Samuel Eto’o and they have attack minded midfielders in Hernandes Xavi and Andres Iniesta and a holding midfielder in Yaya Toure. This contingent is good enough to create trouble for any strong team and once they found their flow, then more players of United has to go to support their defense. It the final happens between Manchester United and Barcelona, it will be a great feast for those who love good football.

Second: Chelsea versus Manchester United. This will be repetition of English Premier League clash. I am sure; Chelsea won’t go for same approach which they took against Barcelona, against United. They knew, Manchester is a different team and they are not just an attack minded team like Barca. Against Chelsea, Manchester is good enough to use counter attack approach. Chelsea’s defense line is quiet good and they have players like Michel Essiean and Obi Mickel in the midfield to create chances and also do the defense for the team. With support of these two holding midfielders, they are capable to keep all threats away from their team. Against Chelsea, Manchester United has to upgrade its level of game. They knew very well about Chelsea’s strength in defence and according to that, they will devise a different method against Chelsea. But, I rate the other option –the final between Manchester United and Barcelona will be a better one. There are more chances to go for a defensive approach in this game if Chelsea and Manchester meet in Rome.

Third: Arsenal versus Chelsea. This will be the worst for Arsenal, if they reach in the final. Both are completely different in approach. Chelsea has more options against a team like Arsenal and Arsenal will definitely struggle against the defensive approach of Chelsea. Chelsea has enough strength in every segment of the team. They possess one of the best strikers in the modern football, Didier Drogba, who is good in air and ground as well as powerful enough to play on the shoulder of the last defender. With support of Anelka or Solomon Kalou, Drogba can create chance and finish in better way than others. Chelsea’s strength is more in their midfield where they have highly experienced players like Michel Ballack, Essian, Florent Malouda, Frank Lampard, and Obi Mikel. In defense, they are not as great as United but they have experienced players like Ashly Cole, John Terry, Alex, Bosingwa and innovative players like Ivanovic and Juliano Balleti. In Peter Cech, they have one of the most reliable goal keeper. So, their defense will determine the game and Drogba’s one goal is enough to win any trophy. After the arrival of Roman Ibrahamovic, Champions League is the only trophy is missing in the cabinet of Chelsea. If they get a chance to meet Arsenal in the final, I think, they will win it. I rate the game as a boring one but the powerful team will succeed in this tie.

Fourth: Barcelona versus Arsenal. This is the least chance so far. If it happens, it will be the repetition of the 2006 finals. But, this will the best final one can expect from the four teams playing in the semifinals. Both teams are attack minded and they believe in flowing football. When we compare both teams, Barca will have advantage in all segments in the football field. They have better attack, vibrant midfield and comparatively better defense. Arsenal, with a young inexperienced squad, has to bring new ideas and approaches to cope up with Barca in the final. Two of the best Arsenal players are now playing for Barca –Alexander Hleb and Therry Henry. For reaching the final, Arsenal has to prove themselves in the semifinal against Manchester United. If they defeat them, their morale will boost and confidence will grew and those are the few factors which can provide energy and belief to the team to face Barcelona.

Whatever happens, if there is a possibility for the fourth choice, I will go for that and will definitely support Arsenal –the under dogs.

How to find the exact AGE? Addressing a social question




I was looking at the news of age test of Ajmal Kasab, the Mumbai gunman who was captured in action. All national newspapers projected it in the front page of their respective dailies. I don’t have anything to do with this particular news but the effort of doctors, state and media force me to think about some other issues related to age. Interestingly, the group of specialist doctors still failed to find out his exact age and ended up in calculating approximate age. This is not the failure of the doctors but the failure of medical science. It is difficult to agree that age calculation happens only for some particular cases and it is not a general requirement.


Recently I had a talk with two of my friends who are scientists, one working in forensic department and other is working in an advanced lab in the capital city. I asked them whether there is any scientific way to calculate the correct age of a person with support of science and technology. Both, in different occasions, said there is no such way to find the correct age and one can measure approximate age of a person through testing his growth of his bone, tooth and skull. For them, such requirements are only for proving the age of a dead body in criminal cases. They forgot or never realised that there are thousands of living people who also will get the benefit of such facilities, if science provided.


Age is an important factor in everybody’s life. Proof of age is very crucial in some occasions and it affects the life of thousands of people in India. But all our science and technology institutions ignored the genuine need of age test for common people rather than going for some particular cases and only in special occasions.


Birth certificate is a very important document in everybody’s life. For children, it is compulsory to produce it during his or her school admission. Local authorities like panchayats, municipality and corporations are authorised to provide this official documents to the people. It is primary responsibility of a citizen to inform the local authorities about the birth and death happens in the family within in one week or so. The hospital who comes under the jurisdiction of the local authorities will furnish all details of birth and deaths occurred as a regular matter. When a parent requires the birth certificate, he has to approach the local authority and apply for the official declaration of the time of birth. The authority will cross check with its documents collected from the hospitals and provide the birth certificate.


In a country like India, where thousands of birth happens in the houses and majority of the people are illiterate and not informed properly about the benefits of registering birth and death details in local authorities, require some alternative facility to provide age proof. Those people who are illiterate, lives in really backward conditions where they don’t have access to any medical facility, and not informed properly about the legal requirement of age certificate will end up in bigger trouble. Government’s programme like National Rural Health Mission is successfully creating awareness among the rural population about the importance of birth certificates. The implementation of Janani Suraksha Yojna, a centrally sponsored scheme integrates cash assistance with delivery and post delivery care, started making changes in rural population in their approach. Still, majority of the people were unaware about the use of birth certificate and importance of registration of birth. Who will take care of those children who born in houses and not informed about their birth details to local authorities? The parents will look for the birth certificate when he requires it for his or her school admission. Then it is difficult to make because, the authorities will demand for the certificate from the doctor which shows the time of birth.


I have come across many poor people who migrated from states like Bihar, UP, Jharkhand etc., to cities like Delhi, complaining about the unavailability of birth certificate. The people belongs to lower strata of the society were completely ignorant about the legal formalities of their child’s schooling. Once they reach the school for admission, the issue of birth certificate comes. Without authorised birth certificate, age proof, the admission won’t happen. Those migrated families will remain helpless. They can’t go back to their villages to get this document and it is impossible to him when the delivery is occurred in the house and was not registered with local authority.


Just because of the absence of birth certificate, i have come across hundreds of children who were denied formal education even in government schools. Government has a number of schemes to accommodate the poor children in educational institutions, but those are only for those who have got admission. Who will take care of the children who were denied admission because of age proof? After all, birth certificate is just a document to prove the age of a person. If science finds an alternative way to find the exact age of a child, it will be beneficial for the family for today and to the nation for tomorrow.


A country like India, who gives proper emphasis to the development of science and technology, should use the facilities to find answer for such genuine issues. Science succeeded in calculating the exact age of mummies and fossils but failed to address the day to day requirements of poor people. There is no dearth of money for scientific studies and India has developed a good number of scientific institutions working in the areas of medical research, genetics, bio technology, nuclear science etc. I accept that there is a lack of direction in the field of scientific research and the focus is moving completely out from the requirements of common people. To correct these things, we require a better leadership along with support of scientific community to address these issues.