The month long wait for election results was painful for both the ruling and the opposition coalitions in Kerala. The people’s verdict added to the pain by providing one coalition the slenderest ever margin to govern the state. In other words, the leading coalition has just two seats more than the required minimum majority in the house. This poses a number of questions on the future of the government. Election results exposed the immaturity of the pre-election analysts who assumed that the results will go along the traditional way and predicted that the margin of the winning party could be somewhere between 10 and 20 seats.
This was the third election in the state during the last two years and in the last two elections, the Congress led UDF made landslide victory against the ruling left coalition. In 2009 Parliament election, the congress led UDF won 16 out of 20 seats with convincible margin of 47.73 percent votes against 41.89 percent of LDF. Exactly a year back, the election to the local administration bodies, where generally the ruling left coalition shows its paramount strength, Congress led UDF produced a strong show in all three tiers of panchayat system along with municipalities and corporations.
Anti-incumbency factor has emerged as a special privilege or an extra advantage for the opposition in any election. Both in 2009 Parliament election and 2010 Local body election it played a decisive role against ruling LDF government. But the results of 2011 Assembly election shows that the anti-incumbency factor failed to create much impact where it was suppose to do its best. What are the other factors influenced the assembly election in Kerala? What went wrong for the opposition or what factor made a sudden change in the political mood of the state to take a U-turn to support the ruling front?
Political situation between 2009 Parliament election and 2011 Assembly election
During the Parliament election, anti-incumbency wave against the ruling LDF was very much predominant in the state. Internal feud in CPI-M, infighting between CPI-M and other parties in the LDF and political failure in handling powerful segments in the society such as Catholic Church added fuel in the fire against the ruling front. On the other hand, the Congress led opposition settled its differences within the front and gained support of the communities who got frustrated with the government. The result was victory with thumping majority in 16 seats which includes the traditional strongholds of the LDF for many years. The LDF was sidelined with just 4 seats.
Those who read these political indicators properly, moved very fast to consolidate their position in the UDF. Before the election to the local bodies, both fronts have gone through a round of political realignment. The section which was dissatisfied with the way of government functioned as well as with its relationship with Church decided to move out from the LDF and join with UDF through a merger with similar minded party. Kerala Congress faction, which was with LDF, lead by P. J. Joseph broke its political understanding with LDF and joined in Kerala Congress faction of UDF lead by K. M. Mani. The merger helped the UDF to consolidate the votes of middle class agrarian segment of the society, which was predominantly from Christian community. This political consolidation played a big role in the local bodies election occurred in October 2010.
Same internal strife of 2009 in CPI-M continued during this election and the changes in the political alignment of the front added more trouble into it. Attempt to create a divide in Muslim votes by gathering support of controversial leader Abdul Nazer Maudany ended up in suicidal note for LDF. In fact, the controversial move with Maudany attracted popular attention rather than the efforts to highlight the political and economical achievements of LDF regime. The result was another hammering defeat for LDF and the impact of this defeat was much more significant than the earlier one. Panchayat election literally challenged the political base of the Left Front. The result exposed the irrelevance of the cadre based party in the rural roots in converting their reach and abilities into vote.
2011 Assembly election
There was barely six months gap between the Panchayat election and the Assembly election and Congress led UDF expected a cakewalk along with landslide victory with more than 100 seats. The projections by various agencies based on the voting patterns of previous two elections suggested that they can touch 110 seats out of 140. On the other hand, LDF also started preparation by settling the difference in the coalition much ahead of election and declaring more popular welfare programmes to retain the support of people. The last budget of the government was intended to bring back the lost trust of common people through populist programmes.
The left leaders may not believe in god or the almighty but they showed how to utilise such type of divine intervention properly. While concentrating on attacking the LDF government on the basis of corruption allegations, the opposition never expected an attack from within on a controversial sex scandal issue which involved one senior leader and minister in the former UDF ministry. A television channel broke some sensational news regarding the ‘Ice-Cream Sex Scandal’ case and involvement of then Industry minister and IUML general secretary P.K. Kunhalikutty. This episode got worsened when Kunjalikutty appeared in another television channel and defended himself by accepting that he has done some unconstitutional favours to some people.
Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan, who was fighting against corruption from his opposition days onwards utilised this opportunity and ordered to reopen the case. The revelation of Kunhalikutty on one side and one of his very close relative, who was part in all wrong doings, on the other side put the entire opposition on back foot. Mean while, the campaign against corruption by Anna Hazare in Delhi gathered a momentum in the whole country and it turned against the corruption allegations of UDF leaders in their earlier turn. Supreme Court verdict against the former minister and the leader of one Kerala Congress faction Mr. R. Balakrishna Pillai made the political condition worsened for UDF. A rejuvenated campaign under the leadership of the octogenarian Chief Minister focused on corruption matters worked with accuracy against the clueless leadership of UDF.
Achuthanandan factor –an image of tireless fighting spirit against corruption provided a clear edge during election campaign for the LDF. Though the party leadership was not supportive towards the self initiated campaign programme of Achuthanandan, the acceptance for his efforts among the common people forced the CPI-M official group to accept his position and follow him. The national leadership of CPI-M realised the effect of Chief Minister’s involvement but the reluctance to anger the official faction come out as delay in decision making. CPI-M General Secretary Prakash Karat, instead of taking the decision to declare Achuthanandan’s leadership in the campaign, opted for passing the ball to central committee and from there to state committee and district committee etc.
Paradoxes
The election result revealed a number of important facts. The unexpected performance from LDF in the election forced the CPI-M state leadership to eat their own words and regret their doings. The delay in the declaration of campaign leadership boomeranged on the face of the official faction and losing the election by merely 4 seats will forever remain big question mark for the front of the national and state leadership. Paradox is that notwithstanding huge popular support; the official decisions can fail you in an election.
Congress led UDF strengthened their position by adding some sections from the other side. It helped them in earlier election but created more confusion during the seat allocation time and ended up in wasting time on un-necessary discussions. At the end, when result was declared, the performance of the strengthened group ended up in just 4 seat majority and losing large number vote share in the state. Paradox is that though coalitiona making by adding parties without any particular political agenda was thought to be make the opposition stronger, the four seat majority has created more complexity for the Congress, as it has share the burden of contradictory demands by innumerable other coalition partners. Thus the coalitioin is weakened by the demands of the partners themselves.
The Biggest paradox was the performance of P. K. Kunhalikutty. Nationwide anti-corruption campaign made a special impact in Kerala during the election and the confessions of the close relative of Kunhalikutty about the sex scandal and his involvement added more fuel to it. Common people in the state expected that the revelations on sex scandal will isolate him within the Muslim community. This also was thought to end in a polarisation of Muslim votes between two fronts. When the results were declared, the much tainted former minster emerged as a hero with second highest victory margin in the whole state. Instead of polarisation of Muslim votes, the state witnessed a particular way of consolidation of votes behind the leadership of Kunhalikutty. In fact, the UDF gained an edge over its opposition thanks to the IUML for the latter’s contribution of votes.
Another but a significant paradox is about the performance of the BJP. In every election, it has been claiming that it would open its account and second, it would improve its vote share in the state. In the early hours of counting, BJP showed some symptoms of blooming lotus in two places –Nemam constituency in Thiruvanamthapuram district and Manjeswaram in Kasaragod district. By the end of counting, however, not only in these two places but as in all other 136 places, BJP failed to open account as well as to increase vote share in the state. To add salt to the wound, its vote share too showed a secular decline- from 6.43 percent in 2009 Parliament election, it had only 6.03 percent to shown in its kitty.
Kerala election had provided the CPI-M leadership a good opportunity to provide a facelift to the party battered badly in places like Bengal. However, the leadership and its failure to come up with right decision at the right time cost it dearly and it will be regretted for a long time to come. The CPI-M missed another historical opportunity this time in Kerala to govern the state continuously for second term and use the time and space to continue its role.