Saturday, 20 October 2012

2012 Presidential Election Victory of Hugo Chavez



Me and people in my age group had exposure to the developments in Latin America. Whether it was literature or Soccer that gathered our interest, maybe –that will be the answer. Beyond that, political developments attracted us our attention from time to time. Che Guerra, Castro and the Chilean coup were well-discussed topics in India. Many Latin American leaders visited India and addressed international events like the NAM summit etc. But, Hugo Chavez might be the first president to visit India and address a huge public gathering in a central university campus in the capital city, New Delhi. This was my first opportunity to publicly see and listen to a Latin American leader. A few years before that, then Brazilian president Henrique Cardoso visited India but he addressed only some selected gatherings in the government and institutional level.

Hugo Chavez, a person popularly highlighted by the international media for his maverick tendencies was like an enigma to us. Our generation was well impressed by his position against the United States imperial tendencies, and his effort for Bolivarian alternative against the neo-liberal approaches propagated by the United States and its supporters. In Indian media, he was projected as the champion of the leftist ideology –socialism and communism. The leftist students union of the university expected that he will talk about left legacies and importance of leftist unity. Interestingly, he delivered a wonderful speech which was focused on the importance and legacies of anti-colonial struggle of India and importance of nationalism. He quoted Mahatma Gandhi and Nehru and highlighted the importance of their worldview and compared them with Simon Bolivar –the Hero of the Latin American Independence movement.

That Chavez is elected for the fourth time and he will extend his regime for two decades if medical science allows him to do so. He started his first presidency during the time of democratic transitions of Latin America and consolidated it in the next decade. By electing for the fourth time, he is throwing challenges to the political science theorists who studied and analyzed the democratic transition of Latin America.

Chavez is a challenge to the liberal political and economic ideology which was promoted by western political thinkers and economists. Throughout the last fourteen years, he challenged the triumph of liberal capitalism and tried to create an alternative to the global system it controls. For the first time in the last one and a half decades, the unified opposition smelled a chance of victory by placing young Henrique Capriles as his opponent. As per the theories of democratization, the international media, observers, and international organizations, all were vigilant prior to the election and positioned with the current opposition. Health problems of President Chavez, the lack of equally popular second-level leaders, the dependence on oil production to run the entire economy and the decline of oil output, and above all, Chavez’s preferential treatment to Cuba by supporting them through selling crude oil much lower than the market rate. For a political scientist or an expert training in the theories of democratisation, all parameters for the regime change are fulfilled and the perfect time has come to introduce the change. The experience of changes in one-party-dominated political systems or other forms of authoritarian regimes suggested that Chavez will try to counter the opposition through some illegal methods. They expected that the desperate Chavez will definitely do some electoral malpractices to gain victory over Capriles.

On Thursday, 4 October while concluding the electoral campaign, both, Chavez and Capriles addressed the people in their own stronghold places –Caracas and Lara respectively. The opposition candidate who was enjoying overwhelming confidence pointed all his guns to Chavez and declared: "I want to tell you: your term ends. I thank you infinitely from my heart that you, during this campaign, allowed me to see clearly the route we must take — the route of love, not hate; the route toward light, not darkness; the route of love and commitment to the people, not of insult nor hate." On the other hand, President Chavez counted his fate on a factor which was completely missed out by the experts and western political scientists. During the winding-up campaign, countered the arguments of opposition with his deep trust in people. He declared:  "You all know that there were several times that I was about to die for being faithful to the Venezuelan people. And that is my path. I will not fail you. I will always be faithful to the Venezuelan people."

On 7th October 2012, the Presidential election got over and President Chavez won the election with a margin of 54 per cent. In the post-election declaration, President Chavez reached out to the people from the presidential palace by saying:  "I send my words of recognition to all of those who voted against us. I send out a special recognition for your democratic talent, for your participation, for the civic demonstration that you have given today despite not agreeing with the Bolivarian proposition. I invite you to dialogue, to debate and to the joint work for a Bolivarian Venezuela." Capriles accepted the defeat but suggested to Chavez that he too won the support of nearly half of the Venezuelan population and the president should consider the voice of that half.

It is interesting that all arguments of the opposition were countered by his belief in common people. In a democratic election, the people are the biggest component rather than election observers and international civil society organisations. If people believe that the incumbent ruler is doing better for them or they are getting better benefits from his regime, then they definitely will come out to support him. He proved through this victory that his social and economic reforms are reaching to the common people more than earlier governments. 

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